LIVE FEED
MEDIAN SALE PRICE$418K+2.1%/30Y MORTGAGE RATE6.85%+9bps/10Y TREASURY4.42%-8bps/HOUSING STARTS1.36M-3.2%/EXISTING HOME SALES4.15M+0.8%/DAYS ON MARKET52+3/MONTHS OF SUPPLY3.5+0.2/EMPLOYMENT GROWTH+1.9%+0.1%/MEDIAN SALE PRICE$418K+2.1%/30Y MORTGAGE RATE6.85%+9bps/10Y TREASURY4.42%-8bps/HOUSING STARTS1.36M-3.2%/EXISTING HOME SALES4.15M+0.8%/DAYS ON MARKET52+3/MONTHS OF SUPPLY3.5+0.2/EMPLOYMENT GROWTH+1.9%+0.1%/
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Market Forecasts

5-year forward projections for housing-market fundamentals across leading indicators.

Scenario
Metric

Base Case — 5 Year Forecast

Price Growth · Base Case projection

78% conf
246820252026202720282029

Dashed line = historical mean reference. Shaded band = confidence range.

Market-Level Forecasts

MARKET1Y PRICE3Y PRICESIGNAL
Austin, TX+3.6%+10.4%80% conf
Nashville, TN+3.3%+9.5%78% conf
Tampa, FL+2.7%+7.6%72% conf
Denver, CO+1.8%+5.2%63% conf
Seattle, WA+1.1%+3.4%58% conf
Chicago, IL-0.3%+1.2%55% conf

Key Forecast Drivers

Mortgage Rate PathHigh

The 30-year anchoring in the high-6s keeps affordability tight; a sustained move toward 6% would unlock pent-up demand and lift volume.

Inventory RebuildHigh

Months of supply climbing toward balance caps how fast prices can rise, especially in overbuilt Sun Belt metros.

Household FormationMedium

Millennial and Gen-Z household formation continues to outpace new supply in most metros, underpinning demand.

Builder DisciplineMedium

A permit pullback limits new completions into 2026–27, supporting prices for existing inventory.

Affordability CeilingLow

Price-to-income near 5x in top metros limits how far prices can run without income growth or lower rates.

Forecasts are generated using proprietary models incorporating supply pipeline data, demographic trends, capital markets conditions, and macroeconomic factors. All projections carry inherent uncertainty. Not investment advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions based on this data.